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12/16/2013

Powerful Storm System to bring Flooding Potential this Weekend!

As you must know by know, we are expecting a nice warm up later this week.  The bad news is that it will be accompanied by rain and perhaps a whole lot of it.  This is not good news if you have travel plans this weekend.   

We are tracking two upper low pressure systems off the West Coast.  One located off shore of British Columbia and the other located west of California. 

These two systems will merge over the next several days creating a complex forecast for the end of the week that could result in very heavy precipitation across Kentuckiana.  

Satrad

All indications are that an initial low pressure system will form in the Plains by late on Thursday bringing a surge of warmer and more moist air up from the Gulf ahead of it into much of the Eastern US.

At1

This low will lift up into the Great Lakes dragging a weak cold front through the Ohio Valley on Friday with a good chance of showers developing along it.   Despite the front, temps will be quite mild up near 60 for a high!

At2

By Friday night, a second low pressure system begins to develop across the Southern Plains of Texas helping to stall out the cold front over our area leading to more shower activity.  

At3

Overall, the rainfall looks to remain fairly light through Friday night.  

That looks to change on Saturday.  The consensus of the models brings the deepens the Southern Plains low pressure system and brings it right up into the Ohio Valley.  This would spread very heavy rainfall over all of our area with the possibility of thunderstorms too Saturday and into Saturday night!  

At4

Meanwhile, on the backside of this system, a heavy band of snow looks to develop across portions of Kansas, much of Missouri, Illinois, Michigan and into Northern Indiana.

The storm system is on track to lift off to our northeast on Sunday and into Sunday night dragging down much colder conditions as the rain comes to an end.  It could end as a bit of wintry precipitation Sunday night especially for our Indiana residents.

At5

Overall, the biggest impacts from this system appear to be with the potential for flooding.  

Both the GFS and the Euro weather models are currently projecting a robust area of 2 to 4 inches of total precipitation between Friday and the end of the weekend.  If we end up seeing thunderstorms, this total could go higher!

Rainfall projection

With the grounds already saturated from recent winter storm systems and melting snow, this could potentially create a river flooding scenario across much of our region.  

Of course, we are still five days away from this event and much could change.  

So if you have shopping plans or holiday travel plans, you'll definitely want to stay tuned to this forecast.  Be sure to catch Jude with the very latest first thing on WDRB in the Morning.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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