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01/29/2014

Models in better agreement concerning potential winter storm next week.

Last night, Marc and I wrote about the possibility of major winter storm for portions of our region next week.

I just wanted to do a quick follow up to that because the models have come into MUCH BETTER agreement with this morning's 12z runs.  

Here's a quick look at the three main long-range weather models; The GFS, Canadian and EURO...

Gfs_pr3_slp_t850_east_53

The GFS is painting a broad low pressure system over the Tennessee River Valley and into Northern Dixie Tuesday evening. 

Cmc_pr6_slp_t850_east_28

The Canadian is showing similar placement of the center of low pressure, but is making it MUCH STRONGER and has it located over Central Tennessee Tuesday Night

Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_29

The EURO is also now showing a VERY STRONG low pressure centered a bit further south into Southern Tennessee and Northern Alabama early Wednesday morning.

 

What do the forecast models now have in common?

It is actually remarkable to see these three distinctly different weather models in this good agreement about the placement of Tuesday/Wednesday's storm this far in advance.  This points towards a HIGH CONFIDENCE that we will see wintry precipitation somewhere in our region during that time frame.  It should also be noted that a track through Northern Dixie or the Tennessee River Valley this time of the year is typically a good snow track for us.

 

What are the differences?

The main differences between the models is the strength of the storm with the GFS now the outlier making it significantly weaker than the other forecast models.  Also, there is a bit of a timing difference with the GFS bringing the weather in quicker Tuesday evening and the Euro holding off the worst of the weather until Wednesday morning. There are also slight differences in the exact placement of the surface low pressure system.   

 

So what does this mean?

Considering that we are still a full 6 days away before the arrival of this storm, take this for what it's worth.  However, given the amount of agreement there is currently between the big three long-range forecast models, this needs to be watched closely as a major winter storm is possible.  Again, I stress that it is POSSIBLE and nothing is written in stone yet.

Moral of the story... A winter storm is possible Tuesday - Wednesday next week and parts of our region will likely be impacted by it.  However, whether we see mainly rain, ice or snow remains to be seen.    

Be sure to join Marc for the very latest on what to expect starting on WDRB News at 4.

Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

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Comments

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My husband just told me that we could get up to. 14 inches of snow tue-wed. True or not true???

Of course there is no way for you to know if this will be a big snow maker for KY/IN, however, I sure hope that this will not end up being a bunch of rain or a dusting of snow. You do a great job of reporting and discussing the models as well as providing your disclaimer: "This is not a promise of snow". I'm not even going to tell my children about the chance of snow until next week IF we end up with snow. Yes, I'm a snow lover and hope we get a huge storm.

I am ready for a similar event that occurred in 94'.
Would really like my kids to be able to expetience
"Thunder snow". I really would like too also ha ha.

Tracy, "could" is the key word here. At this point, anything between a dusting and 12"+ is possible. Too soon to be talking specifics.

Lucy, Thank you. I appreciate it. This one certainly has big snow potential, but obviously you better than to get your hopes up too soon around these parts. The fact is that the type of snow the models have been advertising over the last day or two don't happen around these parts too often. The next few days will be interesting.

Oh yeah! :)

Does this storm mean anything for south Louisiana? Don't have time to study the model.

Will this affect Alabama?

Will this impact Birmingham, AL?

Will this be in Georgia?

Will this impact South Alabama?

I have a daughter flying into Chatt the 13th and one flying in from Washington state the 15th !!! will all this be before those days

Do the models resemble the Blizzard of 93 in the TN Valley? That storm also came in same way.

For those that are concerned about wintry weather from this storm in the south in places such as Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana or Tennessee, know that you are in good shape and the only threat will come in the form of heavy rain and the possibility of thunderstorms. The wintry weather looks to remain well to your north.

Will east tn get a lot of this???

How will this be affecting MS ?

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