Are You Hoping For Some Warmer Weather? The Data Suggests A MAJOR Warm-up! My Thoughts Inside...

I think most of our area is pretty tired of the cold. We will go into the single digits again tonight with some freezing fog possible, but I think it is finally fair to say that this looks like it will be temporary. There interesting part is a "displacement of the polar vortex" could mean a MAJOR warm-up for our area. You are probably wondering how? Let's dive in...

 

Weather Pattern Change

 

Prior to this year, I think most of the US would have not understood what a displacement of the polar vortex meant. This year, I think most fully understand the ramifications that has. In this case, we have an EXTRAORDINARILY powerful blocking pattern that has developed over the North Pacific Ocean area. The block is what we call an "omega" block and it is titanically powerful. Notice how the jet stream resembles the greek letter omega "Ω" over the northern Pacific Ocean. You can see the US and Canada at the far right part of the image.

 

 

This massive "omega" block has enormous ramifications for Alaska and ultimately the effect will trickle down to our area by next week. This massive "omega" block will tug the polar vortex toward Alaska. By late this week, notice the low sitting over Alaska forcing the jet stream to produce westerly winds across western Canada. This is CRITICAL.

 

GFS Mid Level Flow By Friday

 

 

This is not a short term change, check how consistent this is through next week! This westernly flow over the Cascade mountain range and Rocky mountain range will create warming through the entire atmosphere. If this pattern holds, then no matter what the data says... it will warm across the US.

 

GFS Mid Level Flow By Sunday

 

 

GFS Mid Level Flow By Tuesday (Next Week)

 

 

What I would expect to see in the data is a warm-up spread across the US with this kind of sustained pattern over western Canada. Remember, if you cut off the cold in western Canada, then we are cut off from the source of the cold and warmer temperatures should move in our direction. Let's look at temperature anomolies or departure from normals. Notice the warmer orange and red colors spreading toward us starting Sunday.

 

GFS Temperature Anomolies By Sunday

 

 

By Tuesday (next week), the warmer air has overtaken our entire area.

 

GFS Temperature Anomolies By Tuesday (Next Week)

 

 

By Wednesday of next week, the warm is taking over the eastern US!

 

GFS Temperature Anomolies By Wednesday (Next Week)

 

 

By Friday (next week), the warm is still a force in our region.

 

GFS Temperature Anomolies By Friday (Next Week)

 

 

The data shows exactly what we would expect to see in a pattern like this. That is good when you can predict what should happen meteorologically and the data backs it up.

 

 

My Thoughts On A Significant Warm-Up...

 

The data shows a massive "omega" block occurring right now over the north and far north Pacific Ocean. This is critical because it will draw a powerful low from the North Pole into Alaska. That low pressure will get stuck over Alaska for nearly a week creating massive westerly winds over the mountains of the western US and Canada. This westerly wind will cause air to decend down the eastern side of the mountain range creating a "downsloping" condition. This is critical to note because downsloping winds cause massive warming and when it occurs in the western part of Canada, it cuts off the cold air from our area.

 

Understanding the process, we can make a forecast at the longer range with some accuracy. I think the omega blog is real. I think this low will decend into Alaska. Ultimately the cascade effect will be to create MUCH warmer temperatures in our area in the long range. In my opinion, we go above normal on Monday and it likely will last most of next week. I think temperatures in the 50s are very likely at least a few times next week, but it could dominate the week. A few reaching 60 degrees is also entire possible!!!

 

An interesting footnote to this, the Climate Prediction Center agrees and they have us in the 40% - 50% chance of above normal temperatures in the next 6 - 10 days.

 

 

The Climate Prediction Center ups the ante on the 8 - 14 day forecast showing a nearly 60% chance of above normal temperatures!

 

 

My last interesting part of this pattern... the low over Alaska that won't move could produce GIANT snow in western Canada. Notice the GFS shows up to 135" of snow in western Canada by Tuesday of next week! You did hear me correct... 135 inches of snow! WILD!!!

 

 

 

 

 

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Comments

[Israel]

Marc, how long will this last? Do you think we will go back into a below average pattern after this?

[Marc Weinberg]

Israel, there really is going to be no skill in forecasting that. Beyond 10 is tough, more is futile.

[Emily]

You've just given me some hope in the future :) I have been wishing I was a bear and could just hibernate through this whole winter! I am so ready for the warmth! Bring it on! And thanks for always explaining and teaching about the weather! I enjoy reading the blog!

[Marc Weinberg]

Emily, I have been ready for warmer weather for a while. I am glad I can finally predict some. :)

[Lisa ford]

Marc is it true we could see 2 inches Saturday?

[Marc Weinberg]

Lisa, I see no data to support that now. Both the EURO and GFS show very little or nothing for the city.

[Lisa ford]

Thank you! I'm a jcps bus driver and I just want you to know at our compound, we drivers rely on you for our accurate forecast. Last week I saw another 15 at least signing up for weather alerts and your blog. Thank you for the work you and your team do !!!!!

[Marc Weinberg]

Lisa, I appreciate that! Please let all your driver's know I am thankful for their loyalty. We are trying to continue to earn the respect and trust of everyone in our area 1 storm at a time.

[charles stuart]

Marc, the bitterly cold winter of 76-77 ended abruptly in mid February with a pattern change and never got cold again. Could this happen this year IYO?

[Marc Weinberg]

Charles, I am not a fan of saying things I cannot back up. At this point, I can justify data about 10 - 13 days in the future. Beyond that would be a blind shot and that just isn't my style.

[Becky Armstrong]

I wonder if the eastern part of Virginia is going to see 12" of snow on Thursday, this week, like their news is saying?

[Marc Weinberg]

Becky, there will be huge ice and snow totals on this system.