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Could The Monday Morning Commute Be A Mess?

Aside from another round of frost, the weekend looks rather quiet. Our next storm rolls in Sunday night/Monday morning and the latest run of the GFS has a very cold pocket of air 5,000 ft off the ground. At first glance, these subfreezing could easily support wintry precipitation in our area...


Let's take a look at the sounding from the GFS for Monday morning. A forecast sounding is essentially like viewing a slice of the atmosphere at a future moment in time. The bottom is the surface and the top is where airplanes fly. I've highlighted the diagonal "freezing line" or 32°F line in BLUE. You will also see the air temperature in RED and the dewpoint temperature in GREEN...


Anywhere the red line is to the left of the freezing line represents temperatures that are below freezing. On the other hand, when the red line is to the right of the freezing line, temperatures are above freezing. Notice the layer of "above freezing" temperatures from 4,000 ft all the way down to the surface. This is means precipitation would primarily be in the liquid form. NOT frozen before making it down to the ground. Even though rain always tends to slow things down, it's good news for everyone making that Monday morning commute. A little frozen precipitation, sleet in particular, can't be ruled out in select locations. It would take a heavier burst of precipitation to get enough cold air to see a few wet snowflakes mixing in. Sorry snow lovers! Right now, that doesn't seem likely given the light nature of the precipitation. Here's a looks at the GFS "precip type" for Monday morning and you see a blob of green moving overhead...


The bottom line...expect clouds, showers and maybe a little sleet during the Monday morning commute. Jeremy Kappell will be on WDRB with a full update!



 -Rick DeLuca




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