« An Early Firework Show | Main | THROWBACK THURSDAY: Giant Hail Glaciers... »


Heavy Rain and Strong Storms Possible on 4th!

While our weather couldn't be any better right now, data strongly suggests that we will see big changes occurring by the end of the 4th of July Weekend with a good bet for rain and thunderstorms.  

The latest thinking is that the weekend will start out dry with a pretty nice Saturday shaping up.  However,  things could go downhill fast as we head into Sunday night and Monday.  

Let's go over the data via the GFS...

The 12z run of the GFS shows low pressure developing to our west across the Plains with a warm front lifting in our direction.  Ahead of this front, a few scattered showers and storms will be possible over our area with an area of heavy rain possible over the Mississippi River Valley.


By morning on the 4th, low pressure deepens near St. Louis as the warm front lifts over our area with widespread showers and storms locally, with very heavy rain into Central IL and Northern IN.


Scattered showers and storms continue off and on locally with the heaviest rain remaining north as low pressure deepens over Central IL.


By evening, low pressure moves into Southwest Ohio with an associated cold front moving to near the Ohio River with the possibility of a line of storms.


The cold front slides east overnight Monday night bringing and end to the storms.


So how much rain?

If the GFS is correct, then despite numerous showers and storms in the area Sunday Night through Monday night, rainfall amounts in our area remain under control on the order of a half inch to inch in most locations.  However, nothe the swath of incredibly heavy rainfall amounts into Central IL and Northern IN/OH.


What does the Euro say?

While the GFS "amps" the surface low and pushes it much further north, the Euro keeps the low on a more southerly track focusing the area of very heavy rain much closer to our area with a swath of 2 to 4 inches located over much of the Lower Ohio Valley.


Could we see Severe Weather???

That really depends on which model is correct.  If the Euro is right, then this will be just a BIG OL' rain maker in our area.  However, if the GFS is correct, then we will have to be on the look out for the possibility of severe storms.  

The GFS wind field (below) shows a robust area of 40+ knot winds (around 50 mph) at about 5,000' during the afternoon/evening on Monday.  Should this occur with decent heating (some sunshine) then I think we can expect to be on the lookout for severe storms capable of damaging winds and possibly hail.


So what do I think? 

Unfortunately for most, I think we need to plan on some very active weather on and around Independence Day with multiple rounds of storms possible.  In addition to the possibility of heavy rain, IF, ingredients come together then we will need to be on the lookout for the possibility of severe weather too Monday afternoon/evening.  

Marc and Rick will have a full update on what to expect tonight on WDRB News. 

WDRB Meteorologist Jeremy Kappell

Jeremy 6sx

Jeremy's Bio

Find me on Facebook!

Follow me on Twitter!

Email me at jkappell@wdrb.com


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

The comments to this entry are closed.