WDRB Weather Blog

Wind Advisory Issued

Update: Around 3:30 pm, the entire viewing area is now under a Wind Advisory, including Jackson, Jennings and Lawrence Counties, which were not included in original advisory. 

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a Wind Advisory for Saturday from 7 am EST to 10 pm EST, including metro Louisville. 

Below is an image of the counties included and more detailed information regarding the advisory. 

* TIMING...Peak winds likely will occur in two waves. Gusts to
near 40 mph are possible in the morning hours and stronger wind
gusts are forecast in the mid to late afternoon hours.

* WINDS...Again peak values near 40 mph are forecast in the
morning and then peak gusts to around 45 mph are forecast with
the second wave. This second wave also will feature a switch in
wind direction, from winds coming from the south to winds coming
from the northwest.

* IMPACTS...Those travelling early for the holiday week may find
travel difficult on east-west highways during the day Saturday
and then north-south highways by late Saturday afternoon. In
addition...gusts in the 40-50 mph range can cause some tree
limbs to fall, which may lead to a few power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of over 40 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

To find out the details about the rest of Saturday, including the timing of the storms,  be sure to join me on WDRB News at 11:30 and noon. Marc and Rick will also have the latest this evening. We will be making tweaks to the forecast over the next few days, so be sure to keep up to date with the forecast! 

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-Katie McGraw 

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-Katie McGraw 

Crazy Weekend Weather

From Jude Redfield...

    Saturday brings a push of warmth with STRONG south winds that bump our high temps into the 60s!  The quick and easy outline for Saturday offers a few showers during the morning, but it shouldn't be a washout. The worst of the weather is expected Saturday afternoon. Rain bursts and strong storms arrive between 2pm - 5pm. Strong storms are likely! A few severe storms are POSSIBLE. 

    The entire day will be windy with sustained winds 15-30mph.  A few gusts will end up 40-50mph.  The strongest winds are likely as the cold front hits during the afternoon. With the UofL game beginning at 3:30 this puts us in a situation to endure nasty weather conditions at times!!! The game will begin with temps in the 60s, but the walk to the car from Papa John's Cardinal Stadium brings temps around 40 and wind chill in the upper 20s/low 30s.  Dress and prepare for everything.

        The set up for rain and storms is all created by this developing low pressure and strong cold front.

    The area highlighted below is the region where a few severe storms can't be ruled out. Severe weather is defined with winds of or greater than 58mph. 

    The all important future radar images for Saturday can be seen below. Remember these are used as a gauge for time...this isn't gospel.  A generic time to keep in mind is between 2pm - 5pm.

    A few flurries and snow showers are possible later Saturday night as the cold air keeps pouring in. Temps will drop from the mid-upper 60s early Saturday afternoon into the upper 30s and low 40s by Saturday evening.  -Jude Redfield-

 

LEONID METEOR SHOWER PEAKS TONIGHT! How Many Meteors To Expect Per Hour...

Radiating from the constellation Leo the Lion, the famous Leonid meteor shower has produced some of the greatest meteor storms in history. They're active from November 5th to November 30^th, peaking from midnight to dawn on Friday and Saturday morning. Clouds will be here by Saturday morning(18th), so make sure you head out Friday morning(17th) for the best viewing. It's also worth noting that moonlight won't intrude on the Leonid meteor shower.

Image Courtesy: NASA

Head outside after midnight, face east, sit back and enjoy the show. Don't expect to be blown away by the number of meteors either. The best we can hope for now until the year 2030 are peaks of around 10 - 15 meteors per hour. Leonids are often bright with a high percentage of persistent trains.

Image Credit: NASA/JPL

The best thing you can do to maximize the number of meteors you'll see is to get as far away from urban light pollution as possible and find a location with a clear, unclouded view of the night sky. Once you get to your viewing location, search for the darkest patch of sky you can find. Even though meteors will radiate from the east, they can appear anywhere overhead.

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

Gusty Storms on Saturday

Severe Risk:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an "Marginal Risk" for severe weather for our entire area. A Marginal risk is an area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.

The main threats will be damaging gusty winds, localized heavy rain that could potentially lead to flooding in spots. 

 

There will be a strong cold front that will sweep through the area on Saturday. Precipitation will be likely ahead of the front with gusty showers and storms. 

 

Ingredients: The general gist is that instability will be limited and dropping as storms move through the area, but there will be a ton of wind energy that could allow for a few damaging wind gusts and storms. 

Instability: Heat and moisture (or dew points) both are fuel for storms. The increase of each, will in turn, increase our instability. We know that an increase in heat AND moisture both increase instability. Instability is key to severe weather development. 

You step outside today and think, welp, it's not warm! We are good! However, temps will actually be on the rise the next two days. By Saturday, temps will be in the 60s, believe it or not! But it won't last long. The cold front will drop our temps quickly by Saturday night. 

Meteorologists often refer to "weak instability" (CAPE less than 1000 Jkg^-1), "moderate instability" (CAPE from 1000-2500 Jkg^-1), "strong instability" (CAPE from 2500-4000 Jkg^-1), and "extreme instability" (CAPE greater than 4000 Jkg^-1). Models suggest our CAPE values on Saturday will be around 100-300 J/kg or "weak instability".

WIND SHEAR: 

The ingredient that is more impressive is the wind energy. As a rule, we look for at least 35 kt winds aloft as a severe weather criteria.

Check out these 850 mb winds at 11 am! Around 65 mph! Certainly enough for strong to severe storms to develop even with the lack of instability. 

TIMING:

Although model timing differences exist, trends continue to point to a line of showers/storms arriving Saturday afternoon through the early evening. A rough estimate would be around 12-6 pm. 

There could be a few showers earlier in the morning/Friday night, but there is a much better chance to see gusty showers and storms in the afternoon. Notice that Advancetrak is bringing in the storms earlier than that. Again, there are model differences.  But I think AT is a little too early.

Timing is subject to change, so it is important to check back with WDRB the next few days and keep up-to-date with the forecast. Use the images of AT below to get an IDEA of coverage and timing of storms. 

A few showers could linger into Saturday night, leading to a few flurries.

My thoughts?

A few rogue strong to severe storms are certainly possible with the ingredients we have available, but this will not be an "event". If and when storm become severe, we will be keeping you informed in a variety of ways. One of those is on social media. The links to my pages are below!

To find out the details about the rest of the weekend, and of course Thanksgiving, be sure to join Marc and Rick this evening on WDRB News. Again, we will be making tweaks to the forecast over the next few days, so be sure to keep up to date with the forecast! 

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-Katie McGraw 

 

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Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

SIX STORIES Of Life That NASA Sees From Space...

Earth is the only planet with life, as far as we know. From bacteria in the crevices of the deepest oceans to monkeys swinging between trees, Earth hosts life in all different sizes, shapes and colors. Scientists often study Earth from the ground, but some also look to NASA satellites to understand how life waxes and wanes on our planet.

Over the years, scientists have used this aerial view to study changes in animal habitats, track disease outbreaks, monitor forests and even help discover a new species. While this list is far from comprehensive, these visual stories of bacteria, plants, land animals, sea creatures and birds show what a view from space can reveal. 

1. Monitoring the single-celled powerhouses of the sea

This image shows abundant phytoplankton, known as a bloom, as swirls of green in the Gulf of Alaska on June 9, 2016. This phytoplankton bloom was caused when eddies helped distribute terrestrial iron offshore into the nitrate-rich waters – creating a nutrient-rich environment for phytoplankton. The scene was captured by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite, jointly managed by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Credits: NASA's Earth Observatory

 

Known as the grass of the ocean, phytoplankton are one of the most abundant types of life in the ocean. Usually single-celled, these plant-like organisms are the base of the marine food chain. They are also responsible for the only long-term transfer of carbon dioxide from Earth’s atmosphere to the ocean. Even small changes in phytoplankton populations can affect carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, which could ultimately affect Earth’s global surface temperatures. Scientists have been observing global phytoplankton populations since 1997 starting with the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of View Sensor (SeaWiFS). They continue to study the small life-forms by satellite, ships and aircrafts.

2. Predicting cholera bacteria outbreaks

Found on the surface of zooplankton and in contaminated water, the bacteria that cause the infectious disease cholera — Vibrio cholerae — affect millions of people every year with severe diarrhea, sometimes leading to death. While NASA satellite sensors can’t detect the actual bacteria, scientists use various satellite data to look for the environmental conditions that the bacteria thrive in. Specifically, microbiologist Rita Colwell at the University of Maryland, College Park, and West Virginia University hydrologist Antar Jutla studied data showing air and ocean temperature, salinity, precipitation, and chlorophyll concentrations, the latter a marker for zooplankton. Anticipating where the bacteria will bloom helps researchers to mitigate outbreaks.

Recently, Colwell and Jutla have been able to estimate cholera risk after major events, such as severe storms, by looking at satellite precipitation data, air temperature, and population maps. The two maps below show the team's predicted cholera risk in Haiti two weeks after Hurricane Matthew hit over October 1-2, 2016 and the actual reported cholera cases in October 2016.

 

The map on the top shows the predicted cholera risk based on Jutla’s analysis and satellite data two weeks after Hurricane Matthew hit. Blue color indicates low risk of cholera while red color indicates high risk of cholera. The map on the bottom shows the actual number of cholera cases as of Oct. 10, 2016. The red dots represent reported cholera cases.

Credits: Antar Jutla, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, West Virginia University

 

3. Viewing life on land

Composite image of continental U.S. at night, 2016.

Credits: NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using Suomi NPP VIIRS data from Miguel Román, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

 

From helping preserve forests for chimpanzees to predicting deer population patterns, scientists use NASA satellites to study wildlife across the world. Satellites can also see the impacts of perhaps the most relatable animal to us: humans. Every day, we impact our planet in many ways including driving cars, constructing buildings and farming – all of which we can see with satellites.

NASA’s Black Marble provides a unique view of human activity. Looking at trends in our lights at night, scientists can study how cities develop over time, how lighting and activity changes during certain seasons and holidays, and even aid emergency responders during power outages caused by natural disasters.

4. Tracking bird populations

Scientists use NASA satellite data to study birds in a variety of ways, from understanding their migratory patterns, to spotting potential nests, to tracking populations. In a rather creative application, scientists used satellite imagery to track Antarctica’s emperor penguin populations by looking for their guano – or excrement.

Counting emperor penguins from the ground perspective is challenging because they breed in some of the most remote and cold places in the world, and in colonies too large to easily count manually. With their black and white coats, emperor penguins are also difficult to count from an aerial view as they sometimes blend in with shadows on the ice. Instead, Phil Trathan and his colleagues at the British Antarctic Survey looked through Landsat imagery for brown stains on the sea ice. By looking for penguin droppings, Trathan said his team identified 54 emperor penguin colonies along the Antarctic coast.

 Mathew Schwaller of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, and colleague Heather Lynch of Stony Brook University, also used Landsat images to monitor Adélie penguin populations in Antarctica by looking at guano.

This image shows brown bird guano (labeled) on part of Antarctica’s Luitpold Coast. The image was taken by the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus on the NASA and U.S. Geological Survey’s Landsat 7 satellite on December 4, 2002.

Credits: NASA Earth Observatory

 

5. Parsing out plant life

Just as we see plants grow and wilt on the ground, satellites observe the changes from space. Flourishing vegetation can indicate a lively ecosystem while changes in greenery can sometimes reveal natural disasters, droughts or even agricultural practices. While satellites can observe plant life in our backyards, scientists can also use them to provide a global picture. Using data from satellites including SeaWiFS, and instruments including the NASA/NOAA Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, scientists have the most complete view of the global biology including vegetation life on the surface of the land and sea. 

From space, satellites can see Earth breathe. A new NASA visualization shows 20 years of continuous observations of plant life on land and at the ocean’s surface, from September 1997 to September. 2017. On land, vegetation appears on a scale from brown (low vegetation) to dark green (lots of vegetation); at the ocean surface, phytoplankton are indicated on a scale from purple (low) to yellow (high). This visualization was created with data from satellites including SeaWiFS, and instruments including the NASA/NOAA Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer.

Credits: NASA

 

6. Studying life under the sea

 

The picture shows a thicket of coral observed by scientists off Heron Island, Australia during the COral Reef Airborne Laboratory (CORAL) field campaign on the Great Barrier Reef in October 2016. CORAL is using the Portable Remote Imaging SpectroMeter (PRISM) instrument to collect data on key marine health indicators and help scientists better understand how reef ecosystems respond to changing environmental conditions.

Credits: CORAL/Stacy Peltier

 

NASA satellites have helped scientists study creatures living in the oceans whether it’s finding suitable waters for oysters or protecting the endangered blue whale. Scientists also use the data to learn more about one of the most vulnerable ecosystems on the planet – coral reefs.

They may look like rocks or plants on the seafloor, but corals are very much living animals. Receiving sustenance from photosynthetic plankton living within their calcium carbonate structures, coral reefs provide food and shelter for many other marine life, protect shorelines from storms and waves, serve as a source for potential medicines, and operate as some of the most diverse ecosystems on the planet.

However, coral reefs are vulnerable to the warming of the ocean and human activity. NASA satellites have been able to capture space views of the temperature of ocean waters surrounding coral reef systems around the world to document threats to reefs from warming seas, a phenomenon known as coral bleaching. To add to the satellite data, scientists use measurements gathered by scuba divers as well as instruments flown on planes.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

 

Fireball Spotted in the Sky Over Kentuckiana

Dozens of you told us last night you saw a fireball fly through the sky over Kentuckiana!  Based on what direction it came from, this was likely a meteor from the Leonid shower that will peak November 17 and 18. 

Credit: NASA

The reason last night's meteor was so bright is the phase of the moon.  Right now the crescent is waning as we transition to a new moon, which will happen this weekend and give you prime viewing conditions for the Leonid meteor shower. 

Credit: NASA

Since we're already seeing meteors several days before the peak, it will likely be a great show this weekend! The Leonid shower is known for having bright meteors with long "tails" behind. 

This NASA sky map shows the location of the Leonid meteor shower on Nov. 17, 2017. Credit: NASA/JPL

To give yourself the best chance to see the meteors, get as far away from city lights as you can.  Midnight to dawn on the mornings of Friday, November 17 and Saturday, November 18 are the peak days and times to see the Leonid meteor shower.  However, the shower is active November 5 through December 3, according to the American Meteor Society.  That explains why some of you saw one last night! To see the meteors, you'll need to give your eyes about 30 minutes to adjust to the darkness, then look east.  The AMS says you could see up to 15 meteors per hour this weekend.  Don't forget to send us your pictures if you see any! 

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-Hannah Strong

MUST SEE: Watch What Happens When A Man Tries To Walk In 105 mph Winds...

Imagine stepping outside in winds gusting up to 105 mph and wind chills approaching -40°F! Tom Padham, a weather observer at the Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire, did just that on November 10th. This is sort of a rite of passage for this institution located 6,288 feet above sea level. Do you think you could stay on your feet?   

Video Credit: Mount Washington Observatory

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

On This Date In History

This painting shows The Great Comet of 1680 - the first comet ever discovered by telescope.  That discovery happened on this date (November 14) in 1680.  According to legend, this comet was so bright, it was even visible in the daytime!  As you can see in this picture, this comet was also significant for it's incredibly long tail. 

Image credit: NASA
Illustration credit: Lieve Verschuier

Gottfried Kirch is the one who discovered it with the telescope, and Eusebio Kino charted it's long path around the sun.  This was the comet Isaac Newton used to prove Kepler's Laws of planetary motion, so it's also called "Kirch's comet" and "Newton's comet."

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-Hannah Strong

Wednesday Rain: Timing and Amount

Our second cold front of the week (first came Sunday night) will move through Wednesday bringing rain.  We won't see most of that during the morning commute, but don't let that fool you.  You still need to take your umbrella or rain jacket with you when you leave in the morning. 

The heavier rain starts during the early afternoon hours in Louisville.  There will be pockets of heavier downpours with this system and even a few rumbles of thunder are possible. 

We are not expecting strong storms from Wednesday's cold front, but it will be a bit of a breezy day in general. 

There will likely still be scattered rain by the evening commute, so watch for slick roads.  Everyone in our WDRB counties has an equal to chance to see this rain, and it's likely most (if not all) of you will see rain Wednesday. 

By the end of the day Wednesday, most of you will see between 0.25" and 0.5" of rain.  Those of you who see the pockets of heavier rain from these storms will be closer to half an inch, and those of you who don't see those pockets will be closer to a quarter of an inch. 

Marc and Rick will be explaining this rain chance during WDRB News tonight, so make sure to tune in. 

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-Hannah Strong

GOPRO MAULED BY MOLTEN LAVA & SURVIVES: Watch The Mesmerizing Footage That Ends In Flames...

Erik Storm, a tour guide for Kiluaea EcoGuides, forgot to retrieve his GoPro after placing it down a crevice in a volcano. While he was showing a group around the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, it was completely consumed by lava. You might think that a 1,300 - 2,200 degree Fahrenheit lava flow would leave nothing more than a melted piece of plastic. Miraculously, when he broke through the lava after it had stopped flowing and cooled down, the camera was still working! Watch the mesmerizing footage that shows the lava slowly making its way towards the GoPro before fully engulfing the device in flames...

Video Credit: YTViral video's

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather