Update to Saturday's Showers and Storms
Severe Risk:
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an "Marginal Risk" for severe weather for our entire area. A Marginal risk is an area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
The main threats will be damaging gusty winds, localized heavy rain that could potentially lead to flooding in spots and lightning.
Temps are increasing as we speak. That's because there is a warm front out to the west. But there will be a strong trailing cold front that will sweep through the area on Saturday. Therefore, our warm up is brief. Precipitation will be likely ahead of the front with gusty showers and storms.
Ingredients: Summary: There is only a narrow window of limited instability as storms move through the area, but there will be a ton of wind energy, that could allow for a few damaging wind gusts and storms.
WIND SHEAR:
We will have tons of wind energy tomorrow. Winds will start to pick up tonight and it will get windy by tomorrow, even before storms arrive. When it comes to severe storms, as a rule, we look for at least 35 kt winds aloft as a severe criteria.
Check out these 850 mb winds at 1 pm! Around 65 mph! Certainly enough for strong to severe storms to develop even with the lack of instability.
As I mentioned, it is going to be windy even when it is not storming. There is a wind advisory in effect starting tomorrow morning at 7 am through 10 pm.
There will be two waves of peak winds. Expect gusts of 40 mph in the morning. Then they will increase and become even faster as the showers and storms move through. The winds will also change direction from a southerly wind to a NW wind.
Instability: Meteorologists often refer to "weak instability" (CAPE less than 1000 Jkg-1), "moderate instability" (CAPE from 1000-2500 Jkg-1), "strong instability" (CAPE from 2500-4000 Jkg-1), and "extreme instability" (CAPE greater than 4000 Jkg-1). Models suggest our there will be a narrow window of CAPE values around 100-400 J/kg or "weak instability" on Saturday. This will limit the severe potential, but we could still see a few rogue severe storms because the wind energy will overcome the weak instability.
Rain Totals:
There will be bursts of heavy rain embedded within the main line. Expect around .5''-1'' of rain with locally higher amounts.
TIMING:
Although model timing differences exist, trends continue to point to a line of showers/storms arriving Saturday afternoon through the early evening. A rough estimate would be around 12-7 pm. The squall line will race across Kentuckiana.
There could be a few on and off showers tonight and tomorrow morning.
A rough ETA for our NW counties is 1-4 pm.
Showers and storms will push NW to SE through our area during the afternoon and early evening.
These showers and storms will impact the U of L game. Keep in mind, the weather is not going to be great for a game tomorrow. Prepare to see many seasons in one day as temps will drop from the upper 60s to the 40s and then the 30s.
Majority of the showers and storms will end by the early evening.
But there could be a few isolated showers lingering into Saturday night, leading to a few flurries as temps drop significantly and quickly.
My thoughts?
A few rogue strong to severe storms are certainly possible with the ingredients we have available, but this will not be an "event". Winds will be gusting close to 40-50 mph, so it is not of the question a few could make it to severe criteria. If and when storm become severe, we will be keeping you informed in a variety of ways. One of those is on social media. The links to my pages are below!
To find out the details about the rest of the weekend, and of course Thanksgiving, be sure to join Marc and Rick this evening on WDRB News. Again, we will be making tweaks to the forecast over the next few days, so be sure to keep up to date with the forecast!
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Posted by: Visit Here | 11/28/2017 at 02:29 PM