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A man in Japan wanted to clear off the snow and ice that was dangerously hanging from the roof of a house. His weapon of choice, a stick! Watch what happens next...
Video Courtesy: PC tutorials
-Rick DeLuca
Part of our area will see rain Thursday, but not everyone. The chance of seeing an accumulating snow is even smaller, but certainly not zero for all of Kentuckiana.
A few sprinkles or showers may arrive during the morning commute. The rain doesn't really start to come together until the late morning and early afternoon. This means the morning commute doesn't look bad.
Notice below how the main line of rain forms right along the cold front with a few showers popping up ahead. Temperatures will likely be in the lower 40's at this point, so this will be a chilly rain.
As temperatures fall during the afternoon, rain begins mixing with wet snow south of the river. Locations in Kentucky along and south of the parkways may see a thin coating of snow Thursday evening.
This does not look like a whopper of a storm, but slick spots are definitely a possible. Initially, roads may just be wet due to the recent warmth. As the colder air rushes in Thursday night, it could turn icy on untreated surfaces. Please use caution if traveling and check back with WDRB for updates.
-Hannah Strong
Every February 2, thousands gather at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to await the spring forecast from a special groundhog. Known as Punxsutawney Phil, this groundhog will emerge from his simulated tree trunk home and look for his shadow, which will help him make his much-anticipated forecast. According to legend, if Phil sees his shadow the United States is in store for six more weeks of winter weather. But, if Phil doesn’t see his shadow, the country should expect warmer temperatures and the arrival of an early spring.
Image Credit: NOAA
Groundhog Day originates from an ancient celebration of the midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox—the day right in the middle of astronomical winter. According to superstition, sunny skies that day signify a stormy and cold second half of winter while cloudy skies indicate the arrival of warm weather.
The trail of Phil’s history leads back to Clymer H. Freas, city editor of the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper. Inspired by a group of local groundhog hunters—whom he would dub the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club—Freas declared Phil as America’s official forecasting groundhog in 1887. As he continued to embellish the groundhog's story year after year, other newspapers picked it up, and soon everyone looked to Punxsutawney Phil for the prediction of when spring would return to the country.
| Saw Shadow | No Shadow | No Record |
|---|---|---|
| 103 | 18 | 10 |
| More Winter | End of Winter | --- |
The table below gives a snapshot, by year since 1988, of whether Phil saw his shadow or not along with the corresponding monthly national average temperatures departures for both February and March. The table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis.
| Year | Shadow | February Temperature Departure | March Temperature Departure |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 2016 | No | Above | Above |
| 2015 | Yes | Slightly Below | Above |
| 2014 | Yes | Below | Slightly Below |
| 2013 | No | Slightly Above | Slightly Below |
| 2012 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 2011 | No | Slightly Below | Above |
| 2010 | Yes | Below | Above |
| 2009 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 2008 | Yes | Slightly Above | Slightly Above |
| 2007 | No | Below | Above |
| 2006 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 2005 | Yes | Above | Slightly Above |
| 2004 | Yes | Slightly Below | Above |
| 2003 | Yes | Below | Above |
| 2002 | Yes | Above | Below |
| 2001 | Yes | Slightly Above | Slightly Below |
| 2000 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 1999 | No | Above | Above |
| 1998 | Yes | Above | Slightly Below |
| 1997 | No | Above | Above |
| 1996 | Yes | Above | Below |
| 1995 | No | Above | Above |
| 1994 | Yes | Below | Above |
| 1993 | Yes | Below | Slightly Above |
| 1992 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 1991 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 1990 | No | Above | Above |
| 1989 | Yes | Below | Above |
| 1988 | No | Slightly Below | Slightly Above |
While Punxsutawney Phil claims to be the nation’s official forecasting groundhog, he’s not the only furry forecaster in the United States. Some other notable contenders include General Beauregard Lee of Atlanta, Georgia(link is external); Sir Walter Wally of Raleigh, North Carolina(link is external); and Jimmy of Sun Prairie, Wisconsin.
There are even more groundhog forecasters in the running such as Octorara Orphie of Quarryville, Pennsylvania—competition right next door to Phil—Staten Island Chuck from the Staten Island Zoo, Unadilla who hails from Nebraska, Buckeye Chuck from Ohio, French Creek from West Virginia, and the Cajun Groundhog from Louisiana. Ridge Lea Larry is a "stuffed groundhog" from Western New York, and the Tennessee Groundhog of Silver Point, Tennessee, is actually someone dressed up like a groundhog on a motorcycle.
While Groundhog Day is a way to have a little fun at mid-winter, climate records and statistics tell us that winter probably isn't over. Climatologically speaking, the three coldest months of the year are December, January, and February, so winter typically still has a bit to go when the groundhog comes out in search of his shadow on February 2.
Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?
In Punxsutawney, PA we are expecting mostly cloudy skies Friday morning with the chance of a few flurries, suggesting the groundhog probably won't see his shadow. If that's the case, then according to legend the country should expect warmer temperatures and the arrival of an early spring. We'll see about that. LOL
-Rick DeLuca
The moon tonight has a special title: Super Blue Blood Moon.
A super moon looks bigger and brighter than normal to us because it's slightly closer to us than normal.
A blue moon means this is the second full moon we have seen this month. Remember the last full moon was also a supermoon and happened on January 1.
A blood moon happens when a lunar eclipse gives the moon a reddish, orange color.
All of those things will happen with tonight's moon. This supermoon is the third one of a trifecta that started in December of 2017. The lunar eclipse that will cause the blood moon begins at 5:51 AM Wednesday in Kentuckiana, but the darker part of Earth's shadow won't add that reddish tint until 6:48 AM. The problem with that is the sun rises at 7:48 AM and the moon sets at 7:49 AM, so the sky will be starting to lighten during peak eclipse time. You'll have about an hour to see the moon turn red, but we won't see a total lunar eclipse here. Remember this eclipse IS safe to look at without glasses since it's a lunar eclipse (instead of a solar eclipse).
Your forecast is mostly clear and cool. There will be a few clouds in the sky, but you still have a good chance to see the show. It will also be cold if you head outside to watch; temperatures will be in the upper 20s between 6 AM and 7 AM, so bundle up!
If you miss this special lunar eclipse, the next one is about a year away. January 21, 2019, is the next lunar eclipse that will be visible throughout the U.S., and it will also be a supermoon! Lunar eclipses, supermoons, and blood moons are not all that unusual. This one is interesting because it combines all of those elements on one night. The next Super Blue Blood moon will be in 2037.
If you do watch and take any pictures of the show tonight or Wednesday, remember to share those pictures with me using the links below! Stay warm and happy viewing!
-Hannah Strong
THE PROBLEM
Thursday will be a marginal day. By that I mean we won't see feet of snow (so there's no reason to panic), but we will see moisture (rain, mix, snow). Below are the three different models (European, NAM, and GFS) and what type of precipitation each is forecasting at 5 PM Thursday as some start to show a transition from rain to snow. Notice how much they vary in type, placement, and amount of precipitation.
THE EXPLANATION
With so much variety between models, we're going to help you understand the most likely outcomes Thursday. First thing to note here is the arrival. Models have been suggesting this initially sets up as two separate lines that merge together as they arrive in Kentuckiana. Those are circled below.
Notice also the timing above. This is right around daybreak Thursday when temperatures are the lowest. Lows will be in the lower 40s Thursday morning, so I think most of this falls as rain at the start. As precipitation begins, though, that can lower temperatures slightly. A few ice pellets mixing in as this beings are not out of the question. As temperatures climb into the upper 40s through the morning and early afternoon, that will quickly switch back to all rain. There won't be enough sleet/ice early Thursday to cause travel problems. The precipitation will stay all rain until temperatures start to fall, then the impacts come late Thursday and early Friday.
THE FORECAST
The precipitation forms as snow up in the atmosphere, but with temperatures above freezing in the lowest 1 km most of the day, those snowflakes will melt before they reach us. The forecast hinges on when that lowest layer of the atmosphere becomes cold enough for the snowflakes to fall through without melting.
The inconsistencies between models boil down to temperatures. The map above is showing 4 PM Thursday. Notice the warm "nose" I've circled. Even though this system is bringing a cold front, the cold does not hit right away. This map is showing warm air advection right along that front. That means warmer air is blowing into the area which will keep temperatures in the 40s until closer to sunset. This warm "nose" is not a permanent feature. We lose that warmer air after an hour or two, but it will delay the onset of ice/snow.
The exact timing of the transition is going to be fluid. The day starts with strong wind coming out of the southwest. That will bring warmer air (see above note about the warm "nose"), so I don't expect the transition from rain to snow until the wind shifts. Even after the wind does shift, that change over will not be instantaneous. The wind from the northwest has to bring in cooler air that will drop temperatures allowing the snow to fall un-melted. I see the wind shift happening around 7 PM, then an hour or two later we could start to see the transition from rain to wet snow.
Impacts to travel will come very late Thursday (after the evening commute) and Friday morning. Any snow accumulation will be minor. Remember, the high temperature the day before this happens will be in the 50s. Ground and pavement temperatures will still be well above freezing, so it will be tough to get much snow to stick. Marc will talk you through this forecast during WDRB News tonight, and we will all provide you updates on TV and online as this system draws near.
-Hannah Strong
From Jude Redfield...
Today's snow/rain chance isn't earth shattering. Expect a few drops or flakes during the day (40%). NO travel problems are expected during the day. There is an outside chance we could find a slick spot or two later this evening. A few isolated snow showers are possible after the sunset. This combined with falling temps into the upper 20s could mean a spotty dusting. Most roads will be just fine! I will discuss the Thursday snow risk a bit later in the blog (see below)
As you scroll through the future radar images below for today/tonight you aren't going to find much snow at all. This low pressure is weak and doesn't intensify until it moves towards West Virginia.
Thursday has the promise of a cold rain during the day. Temps should fall late. Backside moisture will end as a period of light snow. This does not look like a significant snow storm at this point. As of now some areas could see light accumulations. Stay tuned...
Another arctic front arrives this weekend. Some snow will come with it. Overnight Saturday into Sunday should have a round of wind driven snow showers with it. This is another system to monitor. -Jude Redfield-
The going forecast of scattered snow showers later in the day Monday continues. Here are a few updates about timing and who is more likely to see the snow.
Temperatures will start to dip a little earlier in the afternoon Monday than on a normal day. By 4 PM (in the above graphic) some scattered snow showers start to show up around Kentuckiana. There's a chance these could start as cold rain before a quick transition to snow.
It looks likely there will be snow on radar in Kentuckiana during the evening commute Monday. Temperatures will also be falling toward the middle and lower 30s during this time. It's possible a few slick spots will develop as temperatures fall. However, pavement temperatures will be above freezing, so widespread ice is unlikely.
Notice in the above image how some of these snow showers look longer (less like dots). We could see some snow bands develop Monday night that would drop small pockets of heavier snow (compared to what else is falling).
Those snow showers look to clear the area late Monday, shortly before midnight. Winds will also pick up Monday evening, so if you are driving under one of these snow showers, visibility is likely to drop.
A light dusting is all that could come from this since pavement temperatures are so warm. That will be more likely in our northern and eastern counties, but snow flakes are still possible in southern and western Kentucky.
Jude will be back in the morning with a forecast update before this all gets started, so make sure you watch WDRB In the Morning from 5 - 9 AM Monday. Then join me for WDRB News at 11:30 and 12:00 during the midday for the latest information.
-Hannah Strong
After a foggy start with cooler air, we will be briefly mild and sunny for the afternoon today. But clouds will return by the overnight and into tomorrow morning ahead of the next system, a cold front positioned just to our north!
We will start off cloudy in the 30s and pretty quiet. A few scattered snow showers will be possible early, but become more likely as the front approaches.
Temps will be just above the freezing point, so there could be some raindrops mixing in with the snow during the afternoon.
All of the precip, regardless of type, will be rather scattered and light tomorrow.
The front will be approaching metro right around the evening commute, lowering temps, causing the precip to change to all snow.
This could cause some slick spots on the roads and negatively impact the evening commute.
Scattered snow showers could continue into the evening for a few hours.
And wrap up by Monday night.
But temps will drop following this front. Tuesday morning, we will be waking up to 20s and it will be breezy, so wind chills will be in the teens.
Snow amounts:
Not much accumulation is expected. Expect a dusting to a coating at best, which is tenths of an inch. Because it will be scattered snow showers it is difficult to say exactly where accumulation will be. Raw model data for a few computer models are below to give you an idea of snow totals. They go from highest to lowest.
This is not our only day with wintry weather in the extended forecast! In fact, the entire 7 day is wild! Be sure to join Hannah this evening on WDRB News for her to riddle it all out for you! We will be keeping a pulse on this forecast all week long and there will be updates. Be sure to check in often. We will be posting some of those updates on social media. You can find me with the links below.
-Katie McGraw
Fog and drizzle have already started to develop around Kentuckiana, and they will linger tonight. Below is a look at visibility measurements around the area tonight. 10 miles is the maximum reading here, so think of 10 mi as 100%. Fog becomes dangerously thick when it drops below 1.0 mi.
The air will stay relatively moist tonight and early Sunday. Temperatures will fall into the middle 30s by sunrise and dewpoint temperatures will show very similar numbers. Add to that all the moisture on the ground from all of Saturday's rain, and conditions are ripe for fog to develop.
The wind will stay quiet overnight which will allow the fog to develop and stick around. As long as winds stay low, fog will thrive. Until the sun comes up Sunday and starts mixing the atmosphere, we have a good chance of fog.
Fog is very tough for forecast models to pick up on, but the HRRR model has this new visibility forecast product. It suggests visibility will be below 1 mile by Sunday morning through southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Remember, when we get below 1 mile visibility it becomes tough to see while driving.
If you have early plans Sunday before 10 or 11 AM, you could see fog. Don't cancel plans but leave your home a few minutes early in case you need to slow down to navigate patches of thick fog. Remember, more rural areas will see thicker fog set up than more urban areas.
-Hannah Strong
A cold front is pushing toward Kentuckiana and bringing rain with it. We've seen a few light showers so far this morning, but heavier, widespread rain is still out west and will move through the area throughout the morning, afternoon and evening from west to east. It will be breezy as well, with gusts up to 20-25 mph and the front will drop our temps significantly by tomorrow morning.
Timing:
There have been a few light showers already, but heavier rain is moving into our western counties now and will continue to move east through the morning hours.
Expect them to make it to metro by late morning, early afternoon. Around 11 am-1 pm. The rain could be heavy at times.
By the early afternoon, much of Kentuckiana will be experiencing rain, from north to south.
By mid to late afternoon, showers will begin to taper off FOR SOME, in our NW counties.
The tapering off of showers will slowly happen the same way they started: from west to east.
A few showers could linger in our SE counties into Sunday morning.
Clouds will linger into Sunday morning, but we will likely see some sun later in the day tomorrow.
How much rain?
Most of us are good for a half an inch, but could see up to .75'' in spots.
It has been feeling like spring the last few days. We are mild, starting off this Saturday already above average (44 degrees) in the mid 50s. We will hang out in the 50s for most of the day. But this cold front will drop our temps a lot by tonight and tomorrow morning.
While we woke up to 50s this morning, expect upper 20s and 30s tomorrow morning!
We also have some wintry weather in the extended forecast! In fact, the entire 7 day is wild! Be sure to join Hannah this evening on WDRB News for her to riddle it all out for you! I will also have the latest updates on WDRB in the Morning from 6-9 am! Until then, you can find me on social media! The links to my pages are below!
-Katie McGraw
