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05/14/2018

Early Tropical Activity

Hurricane season technically doesn't start until June 1, but we are seeing early signs of tropical development already. The 2-Day outlook shows a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico with a roughly 30% chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. 

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The 5-Day outlook shows a slightly higher chance of formation, roughly 40%, as it advances toward the Gulf Coast.  Here is the discussion from the National Hurricane Center about this disturbance:

A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula
is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting
with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance
rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast
during the next few days. For more information on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4
PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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This tropical disturbance will dictate how long our rain and storm chances stick around, how strong those storms become, and how much rain we see.  The farther north this disturbance tracks, the more moisture (rain) it brings here.  If it stays farther south or breaks up early, it will allow a different Low to move through Kentuckiana bringing a higher storm chance with less widespread rain. We are watching it closely and will update you as we see changes. 

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The National Hurricane Center will announce their outlook for this hurricane season on Thursday, May 24th. 

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