Severe Threat Posted Ahead of Alberto
Say hello to Subtropical Storm Alberto. It is the first named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. In order to be a tropical storm, it needs to have winds of at least 39 mph and stay below 73 mph. It is expected to intensity, but does not look like it will make it to 74 mph.
What's with the "sub' in front?
It means it is similar to a tropical cyclone, but as you may have guessed, it is different as well. They are usually a cold core storm in the upper troposphere and the maximum winds generally occur far from the center of the low. It is also usually disorganized with a less symmetric wind field. You can kind of see this when you look at Alberto and compare it to other typical warm core tropical systems.
It is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall at the Floridabama shore Tuesday morning. It will begin to rapidly weaken after that, because tropical systems DO NOT like land. They need warm ocean water to survive.
The remnants will then make a bee-line for the Ohio River Valley and arrive to our neck of the woods around Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. We will continue to feel the impacts through the end of the week.
SEVERE THREAT:
With tropical systems, there is usually a severe threat. Alberto's remnants will bring heavy rain, flash flooding potential, and strong winds. They also typically bring (at least one) brief and weaker tornadoes, particularly on the NE side of the tropical depression.
The Storm Prediction Center currently has a marginal risk issued for our SE counties for Tuesday only. This would likely be for late in the day. Nothing has been issued for Wednesday yet, but I think it is inevitable we have a storm risk issued for then as well.
As Alberto's remnants move northward, it will be weakening, but there will be ample low level wind energy. Notice the mid-level winds during the afternoon on Wednesday, certainly enough for a few brief spin ups, which are common in the wake of a tropical system.
Timing:
We have already discussed the timing quite a bit in this blog, but below are Advancetrak graphic to give you a better picture of the timing of the showers and storms. It will also show you the coverage. This is certainly our best chance at more than just pop up showers and storms in a while. It is not a 100% chance, but a decent shot for a lot of us to see widespread and heavy rain.
Storms will arrive mainly late on Tuesday..
And continue through Wednesday overnight. At this time, it appears the axis of heaviest rain will be in western KY.
Strongest storms will be in the afternoon on Wednesday, because we will be on the NE side of the low.
Showers and some storms will continue into Thursday.
And we will still feel impacts into Friday!
Tropical system are notorious for re-curving and changing direction. We will be keeping an eye and pulse on this system for the next several days and keep you posted! Be sure to check back!
As for what's to come for your Memorial Day - be sure to check in with Hannah tonight on WDRB News! I will also have more for you bright and early on WDRB in the Morning from 5-9 am and 11:30-12:30 pm! I hope you can join us!
Let's connect! The links to my social media pages are below!
-Katie McGraw
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