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06/09/2018

Today's Shower and Storm Potential: Severe Threat

STICKY SLOW SET UP

Summer is still 12 days away but the heat and humidity has surged in the last few days - making it feel like summer is in full force! Those two ingredients could also fuel weekend storms starting this afternoon. Storms look to blossom late afternoon and evening, particularly in the northern half of Kentuckiana. This is thanks to remnants of an MCS, or mesoscale convective system, near a stalled our front to our north (note one MCS near Chicago and another Omaha). Said front will finally drop south by tomorrow and will bring a slightly better chance for storms the second half of the weekend. 

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SEVERE THREAT

The Storm Prediction Center has posted a severe risk on for both today and Sunday. Today's risk is for areas north of the Kentucky Parkways. This is known as a "marginal risk" and is level 1 out of 5.

As mentioned above, we have a lot of heat and humidity which increases our fuel for storms and creates and unstable atmosphere. And while there's plenty of instability around, the wind energy appears rather weak. Wind energy is only slightly better tomorrow. Therefore, there is nothing that supports organized severe weather, but a few isolated Strong to severe storms are certainly possible. On days with low wind energy but decent CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), thunderstorms tend to be slow moving.

Main threats will be heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail and frequent lightning. If we happen to get a couple warnings, it would be due to gusty winds as storms collapse. 

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TIMING:  Now that we've discussed the why and the threats, let's try to give you an idea of the when.

Today is starting out dry, warm humid & sunny. But I also show you this image below to show you how this computer model is initializing pretty well compared to the current radar. 

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A few isolated, heat driven showers and storms are possible early in the afternoon.  

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These will be scattered hit or miss showers and storms. 

At 1

But by late afternoon/early evening (roughly between 3-6 pm), it looks to get a little more interesting with the remnants of storms to our north and west.

At 1

Storms will continue to spread out across our viewing area. 

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Through the evening, it will be weakening as it progresses SE.
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As any storms taper off, don't get used to the quiet! We are not done. There are more storm possibilities as we move into Sunday morning and during the day.

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As mentioned above there is a risk posted for Sunday for strong to severe storms for the entire viewing area. It looks like there could be two rounds of storms for Sunday. 

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We will have the latest for you on Sunday's storms on WDRB News this evening at 10 and WDRB in the Morning from 6-9 am.

Hannah and I will also be keeping an eye on these storms and any severe potential the entire day. If any storms do become severe we will posting updates on social media. You can find the links to my accounts below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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