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06/10/2018

Parade of Storms: Severe Potential and Timing

*12:30 pm UPDATE 

SPC has upgraded the NW portion of Kentuckiana to a slight risk of severe weather. This was something I wrote about below. See the rest of the blog written within the last 2 hours below. 

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A morning complex of showers and storms has continued to weaken as it moves SE through Kentuckiana. There is a new cluster forming to the west and that will impact counties in KY during the first few hours of the afternoon. There will be rounds of showers and storms this afternoon and evening. These have a better chance to be strong or severe.

The last few days we had discussed a few rounds of storms today. Yesterday, I was using the phrase "storms during the morning, noon and night". That seems to be holding true.  However, this morning, the data handled this first round terribly (which seems to be an irritating trend). I rant about the data, because when your best tools are on the fritz, it makes it harder to do our job. I ask you to be patient. I am pouring over all the data (however inconsistent it may be) to come up with the best forecast possible every day. 

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SEVERE THREAT

The Storm Prediction Center has posted a severe risk for today. Today's risk is for all of Kentuckiana. This is known as a "marginal risk" and is level 1 out of 5. I think it is likely part of our area will be upgraded to a slight risk or a level 2 out of 5. 

Once again, we have a lot of heat and humidity which increases our fuel for storms and creates and unstable atmosphere. And while there's plenty of instability around, the wind energy is sub par.  There is nothing to support organized severe weather, but a few isolated strong to severe storms are certainly possible, similar to yesterday's storms. On days with lower wind energy but decent CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), thunderstorms tend to be slow moving. If you saw a lot of rain yesterday, there is a higher concern for flooding if you see another batch of heavy rain today. 

Main threats will be heavy rain, gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning. Tornado threat is never off the table completely, but low today. If we happen to get a couple warnings, it would be due to gusty winds as storms collapse. 

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TIMING:

Our first MCS is weakening and impacting southern IN. But there is round after round to our north and west.  
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As mentioned above, another complex of showers and storms has developed nicely to our west and looks like it will hold together over the next few hours along and south of I-64. Expect these over the next few hours.

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Between rounds of showers it will be hot and humid and dry. But there is basically activity going on non stop elsewhere.
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ANOTHER cluster of showers and storms will arrive late this afternoon/early during the heat of the day, when instability is higher. 

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You can see below the coverage of storms is much higher with the second round. Much of the area has a good shot to see showers and storms with this round. It will continue through tonight. 
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The latest run of the HRRR doesn't just have two rounds, but a PARADE of storms. But as I mentioned above, it has been very inconsistent. Regardless, if it is two big rounds or multiple smaller rounds, we will likely see storms lingering through the overnight. So check in with the forecast before you go to bed. 
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Hannah will have those radar updates this evening on WDRB News at 10.  I am in for Jude tomorrow morning and will have more for you on Monday's severe threat from 5-9 am.  If any storms do become severe we will posting updates on social media. You can find the links to my accounts below.

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

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