« May 2018 | Main

32 posts from June 2018

06/12/2018

FLASH FLOOD WATCH: Where Saturated Ground & Heavy Rain May Cause Problems...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Indiana and Kentucky,
including the following areas, in Indiana, Crawford, Floyd,
Harrison, and Perry. In Kentucky, Breckinridge, Hancock, and
Meade.

* Through late tonight

* Localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches in an hour, in areas that
have already received heavy rainfall.

* Rapid rises on creeks and streams possible. Urban flooding
possible due to poor drainage and high rain rates.

  1

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

More Rounds of Rain and Storms Tuesday

We're almost there - this is the light at the end of the tunnel for our seemingly endless rain/storm chances.  A cold front is drawing nearer; that will bring us a new air mass and help drop heat and humidity before the end of the week. 

5

Storm chances continue this afternoon.  It looks like we'll have a relatively quiet period during the early afternoon.  The rain from this morning will help stabilize the atmosphere a bit. 

2

That stabilization really only applies around and north of the river, places that saw the earlier rain.  Kentucky, specifically areas near the Kentucky parkways, could still see some afternoon pop up storms. 

2

Later tonight it's possible a few showers or storms could pop up in or around Kentuckiana.  It's not a guarantee for us to see that late round; it will be based on what happens with that afternoon potential. 

2

The Weather Prediction Center (a NOAA agency) has placed our area in a Slight Risk of flash flooding today as a result of the rain we've already seen and the additional rain expected today.

1

Flooding is still the primary threat with these storms.  Dubois county saw a Flash Flood Warning earlier this morning and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of southern Indiana through the early afternoon. 

6

I'll walk you through the rest of the rain chances this week on WDRB at 11:30 and Noon then Marc and Rick will be here tonight to show you the areas receiving the heaviest rain and any strong storms that develop. 

Hannah's Facebook Page

Hannah's Twitter Page

-Hannah Strong

Capture

06/11/2018

WAIST-DEEP IN WATER: Flooding Traps 40 Passengers On Train In Mexico...

A band of insane rain associated with Hurricane Bud struck Guadalajara, Jalisco on Sunday. Flash flooding quickly became an issue across the city forcing people to seek higher ground. Water was over 12 feet deep in parts of the Dermatológico train station. In a video that was streamed live on Facebook by one of the 40 stranded passengers, we get a firsthand view of the chaotic scene. You can see people in waist-deep water and hear the panic in their voices. Another video from Facebook shows people swimming to safety as onlookers watch from above. Miraculously, no serious injuries were reported due to the flooding...

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather

 

Late Monday, Early Tuesday Storm Potential

The "chance of storms" forecast is starting to sound like a broken record, but the overall flow pattern influencing our weather hasn't changed much.  This stationary front hanging north of us is allowing storms to fire north and west of us then propagate south to our WDRB counties. 

7

The Storm Prediction Center has included most of our area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Monday.  The storms we see tonight could contain gusty winds (below or near severe level), small hail, and heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. 

7

We are also in a Marginal Risk Tuesday for roughly the same areas and the same threats.  The stronger storms Tuesday will likely move in during the morning with pop-ups expected by afternoon. 

2

We will continue to see isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight, but the "line" that came through during the early afternoon really hurts our chances for strong storm development. 

5

More storms are possible by the morning drive Tuesday, so check in with WDRB in the Morning to see where those are setting up as you start your day.

6

Those storms will take a few hours to move through our WDRB counties, so keep an eye on radar through the morning.  These will likely stay sub-severe. 

4

The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted our area as being at a Slight Risk for flash flooding tonight and early Tuesday.  As these storms continue to dump heavy rain in the same areas that have already seen a lot of rain, flash flooding will become more of a hazard. 

1

Marc and Rick will be with you tonight tracking the earlier isolated storms, and I will be with you Tuesday morning to track the potentially stronger storms coming in for your morning drive. 

Hannah's Facebook Page

Hannah's Twitter Page

-Hannah Strong

Capture

06/10/2018

Sunday Shelf Clouds

Did you see these intense-looking storm clouds Sunday? This is called a shelf cloud, and Sunday we saw this cloud as it was weakening.  If you see this as a storm is strengthening, it can be a little scary! 

2

What is a shelf cloud? You are basically seeing the innards of a thunderstorm at work.  Inside a storm is an updraft - warm, moist air moving up into the storm - and a downdraft - cooler air moving down toward the ground.  

2

A shelf cloud happens when the cooler air from the downdraft hits the ground and spreads out.  Imagine dumping a bucket of water onto the ground; the water flows out in all directions.  Something similar happens with the cooler downdraft air.  The shelf cloud happens when that cooler air flows under the warm, moist air getting pulled up into the storm by the updraft.  That interaction causes condensation and the cloud forms! 

2

You can always send your weather pictures to me using the links below. Thanks to everyone who submitted pictures, videos, and weather reports through Sunday's storms! 

Hannah's Facebook Page

Hannah's Twitter Page

-Hannah Strong

Capture

Sunday Night Severe Thunderstorm Watch

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued in the area until 9 PM. 

1

Additional waves of storms will come through tonight bringing strong wind gusts. It is possible some of those gusts will exceed severe criteria (58 mph), so we could see some warnings.  Follow me on social media using the links below for the latest updates. 

Hannah's Facebook Page

Hannah's Twitter Page

-Hannah Strong

Capture

Parade of Storms: Severe Potential and Timing

*12:30 pm UPDATE 

SPC has upgraded the NW portion of Kentuckiana to a slight risk of severe weather. This was something I wrote about below. See the rest of the blog written within the last 2 hours below. 

Image 1

A morning complex of showers and storms has continued to weaken as it moves SE through Kentuckiana. There is a new cluster forming to the west and that will impact counties in KY during the first few hours of the afternoon. There will be rounds of showers and storms this afternoon and evening. These have a better chance to be strong or severe.

The last few days we had discussed a few rounds of storms today. Yesterday, I was using the phrase "storms during the morning, noon and night". That seems to be holding true.  However, this morning, the data handled this first round terribly (which seems to be an irritating trend). I rant about the data, because when your best tools are on the fritz, it makes it harder to do our job. I ask you to be patient. I am pouring over all the data (however inconsistent it may be) to come up with the best forecast possible every day. 

Image 2

SEVERE THREAT

The Storm Prediction Center has posted a severe risk for today. Today's risk is for all of Kentuckiana. This is known as a "marginal risk" and is level 1 out of 5. I think it is likely part of our area will be upgraded to a slight risk or a level 2 out of 5. 

Once again, we have a lot of heat and humidity which increases our fuel for storms and creates and unstable atmosphere. And while there's plenty of instability around, the wind energy is sub par.  There is nothing to support organized severe weather, but a few isolated strong to severe storms are certainly possible, similar to yesterday's storms. On days with lower wind energy but decent CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), thunderstorms tend to be slow moving. If you saw a lot of rain yesterday, there is a higher concern for flooding if you see another batch of heavy rain today. 

Main threats will be heavy rain, gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning. Tornado threat is never off the table completely, but low today. If we happen to get a couple warnings, it would be due to gusty winds as storms collapse. 

Image 2

TIMING:

Our first MCS is weakening and impacting southern IN. But there is round after round to our north and west.  
Image 2

As mentioned above, another complex of showers and storms has developed nicely to our west and looks like it will hold together over the next few hours along and south of I-64. Expect these over the next few hours.

At 5

Between rounds of showers it will be hot and humid and dry. But there is basically activity going on non stop elsewhere.
At 5

 

ANOTHER cluster of showers and storms will arrive late this afternoon/early during the heat of the day, when instability is higher. 

At 1

You can see below the coverage of storms is much higher with the second round. Much of the area has a good shot to see showers and storms with this round. It will continue through tonight. 
At 1

The latest run of the HRRR doesn't just have two rounds, but a PARADE of storms. But as I mentioned above, it has been very inconsistent. Regardless, if it is two big rounds or multiple smaller rounds, we will likely see storms lingering through the overnight. So check in with the forecast before you go to bed. 
At 1

Hannah will have those radar updates this evening on WDRB News at 10.  I am in for Jude tomorrow morning and will have more for you on Monday's severe threat from 5-9 am.  If any storms do become severe we will posting updates on social media. You can find the links to my accounts below.

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

IMG_1597

06/09/2018

Severe Threat With Sunday Storms

The Storm Prediction Center has put our entire area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Sunday.  That is the lowest category - level 1 out of 5.  Below we analyze timing and threats by what ingredients are present and which are lacking.

7

INGREDIENTS

Heat and humidity both remain high tomorrow.  High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 around the area with dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s.  That is certainly ample moisture to spark storms at any point during the day.

7

CAPE values are a bit tricky given the potential timing of more than one wave of storms.  There will be sufficient energy for storms to tap in to, but we will discuss the impact of that in the timing section below.  These factors support another day of hail potential and gusty wind inside the storm, in addition to the heavy rain and thunder/lightning. 

7

Notably missing is any mention of ingredients for spin or a tornado threat.  There are no strong indicators or a tornado threat Sunday based on storm ingredients.  We could have 20-30 knots of bulk shear maximum, but without other forcing or wind support higher in the atmosphere, I don't see a strong tornado threat. 

TIMING

Models all agree that our storms will be driven by a southward propagating MCS (mesoscale convective system) like the one you see below.  The issue is exactly when this gets to our area and if we will see more than one. 

7

Storm-wise we will be pretty quiet through the morning, but the clouds you see here pose a problem.  More clouds through the morning means less sun which means less heat.  Fewer clouds gives us more heat, increasing storm potential later. 

7

The latest model updates, factoring in the storms we saw Saturday, show the potential for more than one round of storms.  By early afternoon you see one such "line" approaching from the north. 

6

We will have nearly maximum heating and humidity at this point, but most models agree this early wave could break apart as it moves through our WDRB counties.  While it will still bring some strong storms (see below), it potentially won't hold together very well for our southern counties. 

7

The consistent part of the forecast is the storm chance later that night.  We have seen this for a day or two at this point.  Another southward propagating MCS is shown below just before sunset. 

7

Based on model guidance and the consistency over the last day, this second wave might hold together better.  That means stronger storms will be possible farther south.  That will be especially true if earlier storms break apart before getting that far south, as the earlier AdvanceTrak images suggest.  Remember the higher CAPE numbers in our southern counties? 

7

Please note that storms, potentially some strong ones, continue through the early morning hours Monday.  It is possible we will see strong storms during sleeping hours, so make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts while you are asleep (something that could wake you up in the event of severe weather).  If you need suggestions, use the links at the bottom of this post to connect with me on social media, and I can help! 

7

Two rounds of strong storms seems unlikely given the potential timing mid-afternoon and late evening.  For the late night threat to materialize, we either need to give the atmosphere time to destabilize again or keep it unstable all day by skipping the earlier round of storms.  Two rounds of storms is still possible (likely - in fact), but I doubt they would both be strong/severe even though that's what the models are showing at the moment. I expect the earlier round to be much more isolated.

7

I'll walk you through these storm chances hour-by-hour during the news tonight at 10, and Katie will have the latest updates for you during WDRB in the Morning from 6-9 Sunday. 

Hannah's Facebook Page

Hannah's Twitter Page

-Hannah Strong

Capture

Today's Shower and Storm Potential: Severe Threat

STICKY SLOW SET UP

Summer is still 12 days away but the heat and humidity has surged in the last few days - making it feel like summer is in full force! Those two ingredients could also fuel weekend storms starting this afternoon. Storms look to blossom late afternoon and evening, particularly in the northern half of Kentuckiana. This is thanks to remnants of an MCS, or mesoscale convective system, near a stalled our front to our north (note one MCS near Chicago and another Omaha). Said front will finally drop south by tomorrow and will bring a slightly better chance for storms the second half of the weekend. 

Image 4

SEVERE THREAT

The Storm Prediction Center has posted a severe risk on for both today and Sunday. Today's risk is for areas north of the Kentucky Parkways. This is known as a "marginal risk" and is level 1 out of 5.

As mentioned above, we have a lot of heat and humidity which increases our fuel for storms and creates and unstable atmosphere. And while there's plenty of instability around, the wind energy appears rather weak. Wind energy is only slightly better tomorrow. Therefore, there is nothing that supports organized severe weather, but a few isolated Strong to severe storms are certainly possible. On days with low wind energy but decent CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), thunderstorms tend to be slow moving.

Main threats will be heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail and frequent lightning. If we happen to get a couple warnings, it would be due to gusty winds as storms collapse. 

 Image 4

TIMING:  Now that we've discussed the why and the threats, let's try to give you an idea of the when.

Today is starting out dry, warm humid & sunny. But I also show you this image below to show you how this computer model is initializing pretty well compared to the current radar. 

At 5

A few isolated, heat driven showers and storms are possible early in the afternoon.  

At 5

These will be scattered hit or miss showers and storms. 

At 1

But by late afternoon/early evening (roughly between 3-6 pm), it looks to get a little more interesting with the remnants of storms to our north and west.

At 1

Storms will continue to spread out across our viewing area. 

At 3

Through the evening, it will be weakening as it progresses SE.
At 5

As any storms taper off, don't get used to the quiet! We are not done. There are more storm possibilities as we move into Sunday morning and during the day.

Image 4

As mentioned above there is a risk posted for Sunday for strong to severe storms for the entire viewing area. It looks like there could be two rounds of storms for Sunday. 

Image 4

We will have the latest for you on Sunday's storms on WDRB News this evening at 10 and WDRB in the Morning from 6-9 am.

Hannah and I will also be keeping an eye on these storms and any severe potential the entire day. If any storms do become severe we will posting updates on social media. You can find the links to my accounts below. 

Katie McGraw's Facebook Page

Katie McGraw's Twitter Page

-Katie McGraw 

IMG_1597

06/08/2018

WEEKEND STORMS: A Severe Risk Has Been Posted For Both Days...

The heat and humidity are back which could fuel weekend storms at times. The Storm Prediction Center posted a severe risk on Saturday and Sunday for all of Kentuckiana. This is known as a "marginal risk" and is level 1 out of 5...

1

2

While there's plenty of instability around both days, the wind energy appears rather weak. On Sunday there's a little more to work with, but still nothing that supports organized severe. In this very low shear, moderate CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) environment, thunderstorms tend to be slow moving. That means our main threats are heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail and frequent lightning. If we happen to get a couple warnings, it would be due to gusty winds as storms collapse. Now that we've discussed the threats, let's try to give you a rough idea of the timing. Saturday begins sunny and dry, then just a few storms flare up for parts of our area after 4 pm and continue into the evening hours. Many end up rain-free on Saturday so I wouldn't cancel any outdoor plans...

3

4

5

6

Remember, I think Sunday offers up the better shot for storms. Some could be strong to severe, but the threat is low. There's also a morning and afternoon rain chance. A batch of dying storms slides along the front before noon, then with daytime heating storms reignite later in the day. Both weekend days look very warm and humid with highs in the upper 80's, but it will feel more like the 90's... 

99

7

8

Overall, the severe risk is nothing to worry about. Just make sure you head inside when you hear thunder, and if a storm happens to go severe, stay away from windows. Marc and I will be on WDRB at 10 & 11 with an update regarding the weekend storm threat along with a look at how long this steamy and stormy pattern will last. Enjoy the weekend! 

 

 

 

-Rick DeLuca

Rick

https://www.facebook.com/RickDeLucaWeather