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February 02, 2011

Wind Advisory for Most of the Area

Very Strong Winds Today with Another Winter Storm Possible. Two more possible opportunities for snow of the next 7 days. Several inches of snow could indeed fall over a part of the area, so let's dive right in.

First, we have a Wind Advisory in effect until 4 pm today. From my calculations, we could see winds gust as high as about 47 mph, so tie down those trash cans today!


The northern part of Kentuckiana remains under a Winter Storm Warning. This is mainly for blowing and drifting of snow. Most of us won't see much more than a dusting, but up to around 1/2" could occur in our northern counties.


Here is what is happening now. Notice widespread light snow showers as of this morning. Just be ready for light snow and lots of wind!

Radar 1



The light blue is light snow...




Future Snow...

Our next system of interest is Friday night. The last few computer model runs are consistent in producing an accumulation of snow on this system. The GFS and NAM are both in pretty good agreement producing snow supporting thermal profile. The GFS is pushing out a couple of inches of snow as you can see below.


The GFS is showing around 0.1" - 0.2" of liquid from this event. That equates to 1" - 2" of snow.






The second storm of interest, and to me more interesting, is the storm Monday into Tuesday. The synoptic or large scale setup has signals that support a snow system. The northern branch of the jet supplies some cold air, while the low tracks in an area that is normally supportive of snow in our area. On top of that, the GFS has shown superb consistency from the last few runs and I like that. Right now the GFS is spitting out solid precip for the area.




The GFS shows nearly 0.5" of liquid equivelant from the river south.





My Forecast:

Our Friday night through Saturday storm has a good signal to produce snow. The overnight time frame should ensure enough cold air for most of us to get some snow. It looks like small accumulations up to about 2" of snow are possible, but I would like a day to dial in that total.

The second storm for Monday and Tuesday looks much more interesting to me. It has cooperation from both branches of the jetstream. That means the northern branch will supply cold air for the system just as it arrives and energize the storm as it moves through. The southern branch of the jet will bring the storm and traditionally these storms coming out of the gulf region grab more moisture. To me, this storm has potential. I think several inches of snow are indeed possible but it is still many days out. As we close, I will update more. Regardless, I will be watching this storm very closely over the next few days.


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