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March 01, 2011

Could More Heavy Rain or Severe Weather Affect The Area???

Most of the middle of this week will be quiet, but as we approach the weekend another storm will affect the Ohio Valley. This storm does have the potential to produce more heavy rain across the Ohio Valley which is not welcome considering the swollen rivers in our area. We need to discuss the potential for heavy rain on this system and analyze if it could produce any severe weather in our area.

 

If you would like to learn more about the forecasted and current flooding across our area, please check my previous blog entry...

http://fox41blogs.typepad.com/weinbergs-weather-blog/2011/03/an-update-to-river-flooding.html

 

 

Late Week Severe Weather Discussion

 

After a quiet mid week, we will see another storm approaching the area Friday/Saturday. There are a few different solutions for this storm coming from the GFS and EURO/ECMWF. The storm will not be taking the hugely southern track across the baja Mexico like the last couple of storms and this normally means the storm will not have near as much warm and moist air to work with. Remember warm and moist air is normally what produces instability and that is big cause to severe weather, so we need to look this over.

First, with the storm not taking the hugely southern track across Baja Mexico, I think the GFS solution on this storm is much more believable and I do like it's consistency. For that reason, I will reference it quite a bit for this forecast. As we look at severe weather potential, let's remember the severe weather ingredients that must be present for strong storms to occur.

 

Severe Ingredients 

 

Well, we have a storm system, so the forcing will be present. I want to show you the wind energy that will be present with the storm on Saturday about 1 mile off the ground below. The red area indicates low level jet of about 80 mph. Again these are bullish winds 1 mile off the ground.

 

Gfs_jet_1 

 

I think we have established that wind energy will be present. The last 2 weeks shows why I always say "In the Ohio Valley, instability rules the roost". Wind energy is simply one element of a complex puzzle. If you do not have the instability to match the wind energy, then the storms just get blown over or the tops are sheared right off and you don't see much severe weather. Once again, that becomes the focus of this forecast. I like the GFS track on this storm and I want to show it to you below. Note the storm tracks across central Indiana by Saturday at midday.

 

Gfs_1 

 

This is a track that we do have to watch. It means we will be on the warm side of the storm. I am not 100% convinced (with this track in early March) that it would have the necessary warm air to support severe weather, but it is definitely important to watch. The GFS is only indicating meager instability values. I have been sharing that instability values of 1000 units with that much mid level wind is normally needed for severe weather. Right now the GFS is showing less than 125 units and that would not suffice.

 

Gfs CAPE 1 

 

If the storm was to slow much, then we might have more issues, but I do like the speed and timing of the system right now per the GFS. If nothing else, this would indicate a severe threat mid south, but we must eye this storm closely.

 

Heavy Rain Discussion

 

This storm will no doubt produce some heavy rain and right now that does look like concern with the current river levels. The GFS has consistently been showing significant rainfall for Saturday and I think that is a possibility. Notice the GFS is indicating that most of Kentuckiana will recieve another 2" to 3" rainfall total.

 

GFS Precip Totals through Sunday

 

Gfs_precip_1 

 

HPC agrees on a heavy rain situation, but not quite as much as the GFS.

 

HPC Rainfall Totals through early Sunday

 

HPC 1 

 

My Forecast Thoughts On Severe Weather / Heavy Rain Potential

 

The storm system on Saturday is an interesting storm. The storm will have huge wind energy, but the instability is in question right now. The storm track is traditionally a track that can produce severe weather in the Ohio Valley. To me it does have some characteristics for severe weather, but this far away and so many details in question means we need to watch an "interesting storm system".

 

The heavy rain threat on this storm does look legitimate. It is coming on the heels of huge rains over a 5 day period. It looks like a widespread 1" to 2" rainfall could occur across the Ohio Valley on Saturday at a time when the Ohio is expected to crest. Since many of our creeks and rivers funnel into the Ohio River, we may have some issues.

 

Full Forecast

 

After a chilly start this morning, we will warm nicely into the mid 50's today. Skies should be generally sunny for the afternoon.

 

Metro1Web_wsi 

 

Tonight skies will be mostly clear and it will be chilly with a cool low near 36.

 

Metro2Web_wsi 

 

Finally, the extended holds a quiet middle of the week. Temperatures will hold in the 50s mid week and by Thursday we will hit 60 under partly cloudy skies! The warm front on our next storm will move across Friday with scattered thunderstorms and Saturday is our day of interest. Saturday will have some heavy rain potential and we will watch that storm closely for severe weather potential.

 

7DayWeb_wsi 

 

Comments

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So glad I began following Fox41 on Face Book. These blogs really provide insight into our weather situations. Thank you for being so dedicated to doing the blogs. You are awesome!

Brittany, thanks for the words of encouragement. I will tell you blogging is a LOT of work, but I have always wanted a place were I could really give my full thoughts on what would happen. This is that place for me and I hope for those that want more than just a 7-day forecast.

Don't know what is wrong what is rite but i know that every one has there own point of view and same goes to this one

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