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March 26, 2011

Saturday Update for Snowfall Potential Tonight

I just wanted give a quick Saturday update to those curious about how things will unfold tonight. Snow potential is possible for part of the area tonight, so I felt a Saturday update was warranted.

 

Forecast Discussion

 

Looking at all the data over the last few days has been quite interesting. The NAM continues to pace this storm too cold. The NAM does not take todays high above 44 degrees and we are currently at 46 degrees.  The GFS is nailing our afternoon temperatures much better and I feel is a better representation of the snow potential from this storm. The NAM is obviously producing more snow since it is a colder solution, but as stated above I don't feel it is accurate, so I will leave it out of the discussion.

 

Here are the GFS snowfall totals and I think a good representation of what will fall from the sky. Remember falling from the sky and sticking on the pavement are very different things.

 

GFS Snowfall 

 

Pavement temperatures remain very warm with many pavement temperatures in the 50s. That takes a ton of snow to cool the pavement enough to support road accumulations.

 

Regardless of what model you like, the atmosphere is too warm to support snow during the onset of the precipitation. We are running in the mid and upper 40s, so we have some cooling to do. That makes accumulation on roadways much more difficult. I have emphacized through this event, that it will be very difficult to get much accumulation of snow on the pavement in the Louisville area.

 

HPC seems to agree with my thoughts as well. Notice their low probability under around 30% of 2" of snow or more for our area.

 

HPC Snowfall 

 

 

My Snowfall Forecast

 

Other than some minor tweaks, I like the forecast I had yesterday for much of the area, but let's look that over again.

 

Timing

 

Saturday evening...

 

--Rain in the Louisville area. Way to warm to support frozen precip as the system starts.

--All areas south of the river start as Rain.

--Seymour starts as a Rain/Snow mix, but changes quickly to snow.

 

10 PM Saturday Night...

 

--Changing to quickly to Rain/Snow in Louisville. No accumulation at this point.

--South of River will see mainly Rain.

--Seymour has all Snow.

 

After midnight through early Sunday morning

 

--Light Snow then Snow showers continuing Louisville to E-town. Slick spots are possible, especially on elevated surfaces during snow bursts.

--Mix precipition as far south as Munfordville.

--All Snow north of the Ohio River. Again, slick spots are likely on elevated surfaces with a greater impact the further north you go.

 

 

Approximate Snowfall Totals 

--Near Munfordville should see no accumulation.

--Louisville will see snow, but the warmer pavement temperatures should do very well at melting most snow that does fall. An accumulation of up to 1" on the grassy surfaces is possible.

--Near Scottsburg could see some accumulation amounts near 1" - 2", but mainly on the grassy surfaces.

--Near Seymour could see a 1" to 3" snowfall out of this system and the highest impact.

 

 

Note all areas will have more accumulation on the grass than the pavement because the roads are so warm.

Comments

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Great info Marc...thanks.

Gotta give you props, you were spot on this time. :)

You got it exactly right. I live in Little York, IN, about 7 miles west of Scottsburg, and we got 1 1/2 inches of snow on the ground. Like someone else posted on Facebook, "March went out like a lamb, white & fluffy!"

Thanks Jimmy!

Fred, I am glad we were able to get your prepared for the storm. What a wierd March!

Jay, thanks for note. :)

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