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March 29, 2011

Warmth back in the Extended, but Severe Weather might be too..

In the short term, we have to talk about rain that will be moving into the area tonight through tomorrow. Some locations may change over to some light snow and that will be our first point of our morning discussion. In the longer range, there are some signals that may point toward a severe weather chance as a strong storm may develop late in the weekend and early next week. Let's take a look at both stories today.

 

Tuesday/Wednesday Storm Discussion

 

Rain is far to our west this morning and really of very little concern for us today. Very, very low humidities should be a great defender today from us getting much other than a light shower.

 

StormViewHD_Web_GIF_wsi 

 

The latest track on this storm looks like it will move a little further south than when we talked yesterday. In fact, I think the chance of any light snow accumulating on this storm now are pretty small. I still think a small dusting could occur from Madison, IN, to North Vernon, IN to Seymour, IN, to Bedford, IN. All of our southern Indiana counties could end the system with some snow mixing in, but I don't think this system amounts to much. GFS is in full agreement with my thoughts here as well.

 

GFS Snowfall Totals through late Wednesday

 

GFS Snowfall Totals 

 

Rather than overhyping a storm that doesn't deserve that, let's just move on and look at this system as primarily a rain event. Louisville will see mainly rain tonight and it may mix with a couple of wet flakes tomorrow. This is absolutely nothing to be worried about at all for Louisville.

 

 

Monday Severe Weather Threat???

 

There is a lot of flexibility in the long range forecasting right now. Keep in mind this is a number of days out, so we are still talking potential only. The longer range models are starting to repetitively indicate a very powerful low passing through Illinois into the Great Lakes region. That is a preferred track for severe weather in the Ohio Valley. Take a look at a very intense low pressure by early Monday morning over the Great Lakes.

 

GFS Forecast For Monday at 7 AM

Note a very, very intense 988mb low pressure over the Lakes.

 

Gfs_1 
 

 

 

GFS Forecast For Monday at 1 PM

Note the GFS shows the storms arriving early on Monday.

 

Gfs_2 

 

 

The GFS is indicating remarkable wind energy with this system. This is basically 3 times stronger than the wind energy with the storm system that produced severe weather across our area last week.

 

 

GFS Winds About 1 Mile Off the Ground for Monday at 7 AM

Note the incredibly robust winds near 65 mph - 75 mph over much of the area.

 

Gfs_850_1 

The GFS is also indicating sufficient instability to match this wind energy. Remember we like to see 1000 units of instability of more to support wind energy like this.

 

GFS Instability Forecast For Monday Morning

Note the 1000 - 1500 units of instability appraching the Ohio Valley Early Monday.

 

Gfs CAPE 1 

 

 

My Severe Weather Thoughts

 

I make no secrets that we have anything close to a firm grasp on a storm this far out. Judging solely on pattern recognition, I do think this storm does show a signal that can indeed produce severe weather in the Ohio Valley. The track this storm takes across the US is one the GFS tends to do very well with in terms of speed and timing. The larger pattern does seem to support the GFS solution of a very intense low pressure over the upper midwest as well. The GFS does show a morning time for the storms, which is not normally when we severe major severe events, but this far out that time frame is highly unreliable. What I do think will happen is a severe weather situation will occur in the region, but the exact location will need to be monitored closely. This does have the potential to be a significant storm system in a time of the year where the severe weather is climotologically favored in the Ohio Valley. I will be watching...

 

 

My Extended Forecast

 

Today we may enjoy some breaks in the clouds during the late morning or early afternoon, but still this should be a mainly cloudy day. Temperatures will top in the mid 50s and I will need to hold a slim chance of a shower during the day.

 

Metro1Web_wsi 

 

The rain will move into the area in the evening and continue for the night time hours. The heavier rain should fall south of the river. North of the river, in particular near Seymour, you will probably mix with snow by daybreak.

 

Metro2Web_wsi 

 

Tomorrow our northern counties will end with light snow while Louisville may mix with a few flakes as the storm departs. For our southern and south central Indiana counties, little to no accumulation is expected on this storm. Thursday or Friday could have a light shower or two, so I will keep a slim chance. Saturday looks like the best day of the weekend, but Sunday does not look like a wash out. The early part of Sunday may have some rain and thunderstorms then turning partly cloudy and warmer in the afternoon. Finally Monday is a day we need to watch for any severe weather potential.

 

7DayWeb_wsi 

 

 

 

Comments

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Marc,
Your blog is turning into one of the best in town.
Great job on SS events. Ever thought about a 14 day forcast? It is getting close to derby time.

Snowman, thanks for that compliment. :) We haven't done it that long, so I am glad you are enjoying it!

I honestly am not a big fan of 14 day forecasts. I think they mislead a lot of people and can have financial ramifications for those that vacation, so I am hesitant. When I feel I can say with confidence longer range, then I will normally give that info. Regardless, I would give it some thought if the interest was high enough.

I think that Marc has the most detailed forcast there is.Only weather we watch!!!!

Awesome blog Mr. Weinberg. This is my only source for accurate weather since recently switching television providers. I cant tell you how much I appreciate the detail! Keep up the good work, your passion for weather is contagious!

Melissa, thank you for the kind words. :) I appreciate you waking up with us each morning. :)

Jessica, I am glad you are enjoying the blog. :) We have received such a good response that I am sure it will be here for a while.

Thanks for your love of weather, it is so contagious. I feel a part of the team.

joseph, you're very welcome! I had hoped the blog would be a way for you to get connected to more detailed weather information. I am so excited that many feel that is exactly what we are doing.

Marc,

We have watched you for a couple of years, and just over the last last few days have we picked up the blog, even tho you discuss it daily, keep that up and more will follow the blog. Thanks for the updates, and we continue to encourge friends to watch your forcasts on air, and they are! Your refeshing and honest assement is great. thanks

John, thanks for taking a look at the blog. It is a fun thing for me since I can give tons of details on the forecast. It has been something I have wanted to do for a couple of years and it is nice to see others enjoying it. :)

I appreciate that the kind words and for sharing that with your friends. :) It is lonely a lot since I normally stand on my own with my forecasts, but I really feel I need to stand by thoughts. I just want to get the forecast right and give you accurate information so you can prepare for whatever Mother Nature has in store for us.

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