« March 2011 | Main | May 2011 »

115 posts from April 2011

April 28, 2011

Severe Weather Reports from Yesterday & Incredible Footage!

A remarkable tornado outbreak occurred across the Alabama and Mississippi occurred yesterday. This may be a very historic event for that part of the country. As of 8:30 am today, the death toll has risen to 193 with 128 alone in Alabama. Canvassing through the video, I can tell you we will likely have at least a number of EF-4 / EF-5 tornadoes. If you are looking to compare this to 1974, let me give you some statistics from that day.

 

1974 Tornado Outbreak Facts...

 

  • 148 Total Tornadoes
  • 19 F-0 tornadoes
  • 33 F-1 tornadoes
  • 32 F-2 tornadoes
  • 34 F-3 tornadoes
  • 24 F-4 tornadoes
  • 6 F-5 tornadoes
  • Estimated 315 to 330 fatalities.

 

Right now, here are the severe weather reports from yesterday. Note some of the reports may be for the same tornado, so this does not indicate the true number of tornadoes.

 

Storm Reports 

 

The videos have been remarkable and destruction unbelievable. These videos are some of the most incredible I have seen on youtube. What you see is the Tuscaloosa tornado. Notice the small vortices spinning out of the tornado which is a strong indication of a violent tornado!

 

 

 

April 27, 2011

Midday Update... Once Again Parts Of Louisville In a Moderate Risk Of Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center continues to adjust the severe risk for our area. The moderate risk has now been moved back significantly to the west now to include parts of Louisville. There have been a lot of shifts on this severe risk over the last 24 hours and another one has occurred.

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Forecast

 

SPC Severe Risk Today Through 7 AM Tomorrow

Notice SPC has shifted gears yet again, now pushing the moderate risk toward Louisville, E-town and Leitchfield, KY.

 

Spc 1 cat 
 
 
 

SPC Risk 

 

SPC Hail Risk Today Through 7 AM Tomorrow

Note the 30% chance of hail now for most areas south of the Ohio River.

 

Spc 1 hail 
 
 

 

SPC Damaging Wind Risk Today Through 7 AM Tomorrow

Note we also have a 30% chance of damaging winds across most of the area increasing to 45% in southeast Kentucky.

 

Spc 1 wind 
 
 

SPC Tornado Risk Today Through 7 AM Tomorrow

Note a 10% chance of tornadoes north of the river and increasing to a 15% chance over the moderate risk area. Also SPC is now including many areas south of the river in the significant tornado risk.



Spc 1 torn 
  

 

My Severe Weather Thoughts



As seems to be commonly the case, I do not agree with SPC moving the moderate risk of severe weather to Louisville. From what I can tell, it appears they are basing this off the RUC computer model indication of higher instability values near Louisville. Note the RUC computer model shows a CAPE of 1000 units near the river which is considerable.



RUC CAPE 
 

However, I do not normally take a computer model as fact. If you look deeper into the RUC, you see it is also forecasting a dewpoint of 65 underneath that instability of greater than 1000 units. Now look around the region for a dewpoint near 65 and you will notice it is very unlikely that they will make it to Louisville.



Dewpoint Temps



A closer look shows eastern KY with a small area area of dewpoints above 65, then another location in Arkansas.



Metars



That isn't the only issue, we have a large cluster of storms to the south completely polluting the air that is destined to fuel these thunderstorms. If the fuel and energy is robbed by storms to our south, we almost always see waning instability in the Ohio Valley. Finally, rain is about to move across our area which will inevitably cool and stabilize the atmosphere.

 

StormViewHD_Web_GIF_wsi 




I have said that I think eastern and south - eastern KY should be under a moderate risk and I still think that is the case. I think a moderate risk and such robust tornado threat numbers are simply too high for the Louisville area.



With all that said, we won't take any risks. We will be prepared for any storms that affect the area.

Midday Update... Once Again Parts Of Louisville In a Moderate Risk Of Severe Weather

The Storm Prediction Center continues to adjust the severe risk for our area. The moderate risk has now been moved back significantly to the west now to include parts of Louisville. There have been a lot of shifts on this severe risk over the last 24 hours and another one has occurred.

 

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Forecast

 

SPC Severe Risk Today Through 7 AM Tomorrow

Notice SPC has shifted gears yet again, now pushing the moderate risk toward Louisville, E-town and Leitchfield, KY.

 

Spc 1 cat 
 
 
 

SPC Risk 

 

SPC Hail Risk Today Through 7 AM Tomorrow

Note the 30% chance of hail now for most areas south of the Ohio River.

 

Spc 1 hail 
 
 

 

SPC Damaging Wind Risk Today Through 7 AM Tomorrow

Note we also have a 30% chance of damaging winds across most of the area increasing to 45% in southeast Kentucky.

 

Spc 1 wind 
 
 

SPC Tornado Risk Today Through 7 AM Tomorrow

Note a 10% chance of tornadoes north of the river and increasing to a 15% chance over the moderate risk area. Also SPC is now including many areas south of the river in the significant tornado risk.



Spc 1 torn 
  

 

My Severe Weather Thoughts



As seems to be commonly the case, I do not agree with SPC moving the moderate risk of severe weather to Louisville. From what I can tell, it appears they are basing this off the RUC computer model indication of higher instability values near Louisville. Note the RUC computer model shows a CAPE of 1000 units near the river which is considerable.



RUC CAPE 
 

However, I do not normally take a computer model as fact. If you look deeper into the RUC, you see it is also forecasting a dewpoint of 65 underneath that instability of greater than 1000 units. Now look around the region for a dewpoint near 65 and you will notice it is very unlikely that they will make it to Louisville.



Dewpoint Temps



A closer look shows eastern KY with a small area area of dewpoints above 65, then another location in Arkansas.



Metars



That isn't the only issue, we have a large cluster of storms to the south completely polluting the air that is destined to fuel these thunderstorms. If the fuel and energy is robbed by storms to our south, we almost always see waning instability in the Ohio Valley. Finally, rain is about to move across our area which will inevitably cool and stabilize the atmosphere.

 

StormViewHD_Web_GIF_wsi 




I have said that I think eastern and south - eastern KY should be under a moderate risk and I still think that is the case. I think a moderate risk and such robust tornado threat numbers are simply too high for the Louisville area.



With all that said, we won't take any risks. We will be prepared for any storms that affect the area.