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May 30, 2011

Heat Is Still Coming on Strong... More Record Breaking Heat

I don't think it would be fair to describe this heat as anything less than a full summer like pattern. We have a massive ridge of high pressure controlling our area right now and it is flexing it's muscles today. We tied a record high temperature today that was set 116 years ago in as we soared into the mid 90s.




What you may not want to hear is the more records may fall.


Forecast Discussion


The upper level ridge over us is not something that traditionally graces our area in the spring, but this is a full summer like pattern. You can actually see how this big upper level high pressure is the dominating force again in our area for the next 7 days.


GFS Flow At 6 Miles Above The Ground Today

Note, the big high pressure over our area forcing the air to rise up and over our area.




GFS Flow At 6 Miles Above The Ground Wednesday

Notice how the ridge has flattened a little bit. That means the sinking air under that ridge will not be as pronounced and an isolated t-storm is possible mid week.




GFS Flow At 6 Miles Above The Ground Today

Once again by Friday, we see our massive ridge of high pressure re-establishing itself. So very hot conditions will return by late in the week.



This is really the oscillation that we will see in the short term as we the ridge strengthens and weakens. When it is strong, there is tons of sinking air resulting lots of sunshine and major heat. When the ridge flattens, the amount of sinking air lessens and there are more clouds, slim t-shower chances, and not quite as hot temperatures.


Extended Forecast


Tonight will be very warm under mostly clear skies. Our temperatures will only fall to about 74.




The record high tomorrow is 94 set in 1937 and I think we will tie or beat that record. I have mostly sunny skies with a record breaking high of 95.




Finally, we will see a slight increase in our storm chances on Wednesday, then the ridge re-establishes itself pushing highs back into the mid 90s for Friday and Saturday. On Sunday / Monday, the ridge will flatten and the mid level high will weaken a little allowing another some chance of t-storm. The good news is I see no flooding rains in our near future.






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Do you think our severe weather season is over for the spring? Now on to summer?


When the summer ridge sets in this traditionally ends storms season for the lower midwest and Ohio Valley. Getting strong enough mid level winds to support significant severe weather now will become increasingly more difficult.

Do you think we'll have another miserable summer like last year?

Lorri, I will try to address that in a blog entry this week. :)

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